Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for Hot Springs, AR
Home values in Hot Springs, AR have appreciated at 2.5% per year. Appreciation is modest, meaning total returns will be driven primarily by cash flow rather than equity gains. This is actually preferred by many investors who want predictable, income-based returns.
If Hot Springs continues appreciating at 2.5% annually, the current median of $240,000 would reach approximately $271,538 in 5 years — an equity gain of $31,538 on a property purchased at the median. With a 20% down payment of $48,000, that represents a 66% return on invested equity from appreciation alone. Combined with 5 years of NOI totaling approximately $54,144, the projected total return is $85,682 — a 179% cumulative return on the initial investment.
Hot Springs's population growth of 0.9% is moderate and positive, supporting steady but not explosive demand for housing. Markets with this growth profile tend to appreciate consistently without the boom-bust cycles of hyper-growth metros.
Smart investors evaluate both cash flow AND appreciation. In Hot Springs, the 4.51% cap rate provides moderate ongoing cash flow, while 2.5% annual appreciation adds an equity component. Conservative underwriting is essential. Focus on deals where the cash flow stands on its own, and treat any appreciation as a bonus.
Hot Springs vs Arkansas state average and national average across key investment metrics. Hot Springs beats the national average but trails the Arkansas average on cap rate.