Lawrenceburg, TN Cap Rate 4.30%
Lawrenceburg is a budget-friendly market in the South with a small but investable metro of 50,000. At a 4.30% estimated cap rate, this is a moderate market where rents of $1,220/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $240,000 and steady population growth supports long-term rental demand, Lawrenceburg offers opportunities for investors who source deals carefully.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
Market Data
2026 Market Update: Lawrenceburg
Lawrenceburg's 0.5% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $240,000, the $1,220/mo rent produces only $860/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($48K at 7%) would result in approximately $-417/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
With 1.6% annual population growth paired with 3.1% home appreciation, Lawrenceburg offers a rare combination of current cash flow and future equity upside. The 16.4x gross rent multiplier suggests the market hasn't fully priced in this growth trajectory.
Deal Modeling & Scenarios for Lawrenceburg
All figures below are computed from Lawrenceburg's real market medians. Use them as a baseline; override with property-specific numbers in the calculators.
Property Tax Bill in Real Dollars
At 0.65% effective rate on the $240,000 median price, the annual tax bill is $1,560 — that's below national average (-39% vs the national average of ~1.06%). Verify the actual assessed value before purchase; sale-triggered reassessments can push the bill higher than the seller's current statement.
5-Year Cap Rate Trajectory
If Lawrenceburg continues appreciating at 3.1%/yr while rents grow at a conservative 3%/yr, cap rate compresses as price growth outpaces rent. Year-by-year projection at the median:
| Year | Est. Price | Est. Rent/Mo | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $240K | $1,220 | 4.3% |
| Year 1 | $247K | $1,257 | 4.3% |
| Year 2 | $255K | $1,294 | 4.3% |
| Year 3 | $263K | $1,333 | 4.3% |
| Year 4 | $271K | $1,373 | 4.3% |
| Year 5 | $280K | $1,414 | 4.3% |
Three Financing Scenarios
Same median-priced Lawrenceburg property — different capital structures. All-cash maximizes cap rate. Leverage trades cash flow for higher cash-on-cash return when the spread between cap rate and borrowing cost is positive.
| Scenario | Cash Invested | Monthly Cash Flow | Annual CF | Cash-on-Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cash | $240K | $860 | $10,326 | 4.3% |
| 20% down conventional @ 7% | $55K | $-416 | $-4,996 | -9.1% |
| 25% down DSCR @ 8.5% | $70K | $-524 | $-6,285 | -9.0% |
Three Price Tiers: Below, At, and Above the Median
Properties don't always trade at the median. Lower-priced units typically offer higher cap rates but harder operations; higher-priced properties tend to compress cap rates while attracting better tenants. All-cash assumptions below:
| Tier | Price | Rent/Mo | NOI/Yr | Cap Rate | Monthly CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median (~75% price) | $180K | $1,037 | $7,854 | 4.4% | $654 |
| At median | $240K | $1,220 | $8,943 | 3.7% | $745 |
| Above median (~125% price) | $300K | $1,403 | $10,033 | 3.3% | $836 |
Total Return Over a 5-Year Hold
Cap rate is just one piece. Real estate returns come from four sources: cash flow, appreciation, principal paydown, and tax benefits. Assuming 20% down conventional financing at 7% and a 5-year hold at Lawrenceburg's historical appreciation rate of 3.1%:
On a $48K down payment, that's a 60.4% total ROI over 5 years (not annualized). Tax benefits from depreciation are additional and depend on your personal tax bracket.
Risk Flags Specific to Lawrenceburg
Automated checks against the underlying data — surface only the risks that actually apply to Lawrenceburg, not generic boilerplate:
Cap Rate Calculator — Lawrenceburg
Pre-filled with Lawrenceburg medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Cash-on-Cash Return — Lawrenceburg
Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Lawrenceburg.
Is Lawrenceburg a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Lawrenceburg, TN has a population of 50,000 and has been growing at 1.6% annually — above the national average, suggesting steady demand pressure on housing. The median home price of $240,000 paired with median rents of $1,220/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 4.30%.
Property taxes at 0.65% are well below the national average of ~1.1%, providing a meaningful cash flow advantage many investors overlook. The vacancy rate of 5.7% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 4.5x, homes cost about 4.5 times the local median income of $53,744. This relatively affordable ratio suggests a deep pool of renters who find buying out of reach, supporting rental demand. Home values have appreciated at roughly 3.1% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Lawrenceburg presents moderate opportunities. Cap rates near 4.30% mean deals need careful sourcing — look for value-add rehabs or emerging neighborhoods where rents are climbing.