%
CapRateCity
Free cap rate calculators for every US market
MarketsKentuckyBardstownAppreciation & Growth Forecast

Appreciation & Growth Forecast: Bardstown, KY

Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for Bardstown, KY

Cap Rate
3.65%
Median Price
$265K
Rent/Mo
$1,230
1% Rule
0.46%
Fails

Historical Appreciation

Home values in Bardstown, KY have appreciated at 2.8% per year. Appreciation is modest, meaning total returns will be driven primarily by cash flow rather than equity gains. This is actually preferred by many investors who want predictable, income-based returns.

5-Year Price Projection

If Bardstown continues appreciating at 2.8% annually, the current median of $265,000 would reach approximately $304,237 in 5 years — an equity gain of $39,237 on a property purchased at the median. With a 20% down payment of $53,000, that represents a 74% return on invested equity from appreciation alone. Combined with 5 years of NOI totaling approximately $48,335, the projected total return is $87,572 — a 165% cumulative return on the initial investment.

Growth Drivers

Bardstown's population growth of 0.8% is moderate and positive, supporting steady but not explosive demand for housing. Markets with this growth profile tend to appreciate consistently without the boom-bust cycles of hyper-growth metros.

Total Return Analysis

Smart investors evaluate both cash flow AND appreciation. In Bardstown, the 3.65% cap rate provides moderate ongoing cash flow, while 2.8% annual appreciation adds an equity component. Conservative underwriting is essential. Focus on deals where the cash flow stands on its own, and treat any appreciation as a bonus.

Sponsored · Want to analyze a specific property? DealCheck imports real listing data and runs the full analysis for you.
Try Free →

How Bardstown Compares

Bardstown vs Kentucky state average and national average across key investment metrics. Bardstown's cap rate is below both benchmarks — deal sourcing is critical here.

Metric
Bardstown
Kentucky Avg
National Avg
Cap Rate
3.65%
4.76%
3.81%
Median Price
$265K
$225K
$333K
Median Rent
$1,230
$1,219
$1,524
Property Tax
0.81%
0.81%
1.08%
Vacancy
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
Pop. Growth
0.8%/yr
0.8%/yr
0.9%/yr

Nearby South Markets

City
Cap Rate
Price
Rent
Tax
Bardstown, KY
3.6%
$265K
$1,230
0.81%
Athens, TX
3.3%
$265K
$1,370
1.72%
Lake City, FL
4.9%
$265K
$1,520
0.86%
Tyler, TX
3.2%
$265K
$1,340
1.72%
Greensboro, NC
4.5%
$260K
$1,410
0.82%

Frequently Asked Questions

How fast are home prices rising in Bardstown?
Home values in Bardstown have been appreciating at 2.8% per year. This is near the national average, providing steady equity growth. At this rate, a $265K home would be worth approximately $304K in 5 years.
Is Bardstown a growing city?
Bardstown's population of 50,000 is growing at 0.8% per year. Moderate growth provides stable demand without overheating.
What is the best investment strategy for Bardstown?
In Bardstown, pure cash flow is tight at 3.65%. Consider appreciation-focused strategies, house hacking, or targeting below-median properties where rent-to-price ratios are stronger.
How does Bardstown compare to other South cities?
Among South markets, Bardstown's 3.65% cap rate is below the Kentucky average of 4.76%. Prices at $265K are above the state average of $225K. See our comparison tool to evaluate Bardstown against specific markets.
Full Bardstown Analysis →Cap Rate CalculatorBRRRR Calculator

Explore Bardstown & Related Markets

More Bardstown Guides

Rental Property Investment GuideRent AnalysisProperty Tax GuideCost of Living & AffordabilityNeighborhood Investment Guide

Similar Markets in the South

Easton, MD$480K · $2,330/mo
3.6%
Lexington, KY$320K · $1,480/mo
3.7%
Fayetteville, AR$360K · $1,590/mo
3.6%
Frankfort, KY$245K · $1,140/mo
3.7%
Victoria, TX$215K · $1,180/mo
3.7%
The CapRateCity Report
Weekly market analysis: highest cap rate cities, emerging markets, and deal breakdowns. Free, no spam.