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Appreciation & Growth Forecast: El Campo, TX

Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for El Campo, TX

Cap Rate
4.83%
Median Price
$240K
Rent/Mo
$1,560
1% Rule
0.65%
Fails

Historical Appreciation

Home values in El Campo, TX have appreciated at 2.7% per year. Appreciation is modest, meaning total returns will be driven primarily by cash flow rather than equity gains. This is actually preferred by many investors who want predictable, income-based returns.

5-Year Price Projection

If El Campo continues appreciating at 2.7% annually, the current median of $240,000 would reach approximately $274,197 in 5 years — an equity gain of $34,197 on a property purchased at the median. With a 20% down payment of $48,000, that represents a 71% return on invested equity from appreciation alone. Combined with 5 years of NOI totaling approximately $57,931, the projected total return is $92,128 — a 192% cumulative return on the initial investment.

Growth Drivers

El Campo's population is growing at 1.8% annually — well above the US average of ~0.5%. Rapid population growth is the single strongest predictor of sustained home price appreciation because it creates persistent demand pressure. More people need more housing, and new construction rarely keeps pace with demand in fast-growing markets. Higher-than-average local incomes ($63,735) support continued price growth as more residents can afford to bid up properties.

Total Return Analysis

Smart investors evaluate both cash flow AND appreciation. In El Campo, the 4.83% cap rate provides moderate ongoing cash flow, while 2.7% annual appreciation adds an equity component. Conservative underwriting is essential. Focus on deals where the cash flow stands on its own, and treat any appreciation as a bonus.

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How El Campo Compares

El Campo vs Texas state average and national average across key investment metrics. El Campo outperforms both benchmarks on cap rate.

Metric
El Campo
Texas Avg
National Avg
Cap Rate
4.83%
3.89%
3.81%
Median Price
$240K
$264K
$333K
Median Rent
$1,560
$1,415
$1,524
Property Tax
1.72%
1.72%
1.08%
Vacancy
5.8%
5.8%
5.6%
Pop. Growth
1.8%/yr
1.8%/yr
0.9%/yr

Nearby South Markets

City
Cap Rate
Price
Rent
Tax
El Campo, TX
4.8%
$240K
$1,560
1.72%
Baton Rouge, LA
5.0%
$240K
$1,350
0.56%
Oklahoma City, OK
4.7%
$240K
$1,360
0.88%
Memphis, TN
4.3%
$240K
$1,420
1.48%
Norman, OK
4.8%
$240K
$1,360
0.86%

Frequently Asked Questions

How fast are home prices rising in El Campo?
Home values in El Campo have been appreciating at 2.7% per year. This is near the national average, providing steady equity growth. At this rate, a $240K home would be worth approximately $274K in 5 years.
Is El Campo a growing city?
El Campo's population of 50,000 is growing at 1.8% per year. This rapid growth drives housing demand and supports both rent increases and price appreciation.
What is the best investment strategy for El Campo?
El Campo's 4.83% cap rate and strong growth make it a balanced market. Look for value-add properties below median where you can force appreciation through renovation while capturing cash flow.
How does El Campo compare to other South cities?
Among South markets, El Campo's 4.83% cap rate exceeds the Texas average of 3.89%. Prices at $240K are below the state average of $264K. See our comparison tool to evaluate El Campo against specific markets.
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Explore El Campo & Related Markets

More El Campo Guides

Rental Property Investment GuideRent AnalysisProperty Tax GuideCost of Living & AffordabilityNeighborhood Investment Guide

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