Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for Medford, OR
Home values in Medford, OR have appreciated at 2.6% per year. Appreciation is modest, meaning total returns will be driven primarily by cash flow rather than equity gains. This is actually preferred by many investors who want predictable, income-based returns.
If Medford continues appreciating at 2.6% annually, the current median of $355,000 would reach approximately $403,613 in 5 years — an equity gain of $48,613 on a property purchased at the median. With a 20% down payment of $71,000, that represents a 68% return on invested equity from appreciation alone. Combined with 5 years of NOI totaling approximately $52,120, the projected total return is $100,733 — a 142% cumulative return on the initial investment.
Medford's population growth of 1% is moderate and positive, supporting steady but not explosive demand for housing. Markets with this growth profile tend to appreciate consistently without the boom-bust cycles of hyper-growth metros.
Smart investors evaluate both cash flow AND appreciation. In Medford, the 2.94% cap rate provides modest ongoing cash flow, while 2.6% annual appreciation adds an equity component. Conservative underwriting is essential. Focus on deals where the cash flow stands on its own, and treat any appreciation as a bonus.