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MarketsOregonThe DallesAppreciation & Growth Forecast

Appreciation & Growth Forecast: The Dalles, OR

Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for The Dalles, OR

Cap Rate
3.04%
Median Price
$390K
Rent/Mo
$1,630
1% Rule
0.42%
Fails

Historical Appreciation

Home values in The Dalles, OR have appreciated at 2.5% per year. Appreciation is modest, meaning total returns will be driven primarily by cash flow rather than equity gains. This is actually preferred by many investors who want predictable, income-based returns.

5-Year Price Projection

If The Dalles continues appreciating at 2.5% annually, the current median of $390,000 would reach approximately $441,249 in 5 years — an equity gain of $51,249 on a property purchased at the median. With a 20% down payment of $78,000, that represents a 66% return on invested equity from appreciation alone. Combined with 5 years of NOI totaling approximately $59,273, the projected total return is $110,522 — a 142% cumulative return on the initial investment.

Growth Drivers

The Dalles's population growth of 1% is moderate and positive, supporting steady but not explosive demand for housing. Markets with this growth profile tend to appreciate consistently without the boom-bust cycles of hyper-growth metros.

Total Return Analysis

Smart investors evaluate both cash flow AND appreciation. In The Dalles, the 3.04% cap rate provides modest ongoing cash flow, while 2.5% annual appreciation adds an equity component. Conservative underwriting is essential. Focus on deals where the cash flow stands on its own, and treat any appreciation as a bonus.

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How The Dalles Compares

The Dalles vs Oregon state average and national average across key investment metrics. The Dalles's cap rate is below both benchmarks — deal sourcing is critical here.

Metric
The Dalles
Oregon Avg
National Avg
Cap Rate
3.04%
2.74%
3.81%
Median Price
$390K
$438K
$333K
Median Rent
$1,630
$1,672
$1,524
Property Tax
0.94%
0.94%
1.08%
Vacancy
4.7%
4.7%
5.6%
Pop. Growth
1%/yr
1%/yr
0.9%/yr

Nearby West Markets

City
Cap Rate
Price
Rent
Tax
The Dalles, OR
3.0%
$390K
$1,630
0.94%
Show Low, AZ
3.7%
$390K
$1,770
0.63%
Chico, CA
3.1%
$395K
$1,600
0.75%
Sonora, CA
2.8%
$385K
$1,460
0.75%
Cheyenne, WY
3.1%
$380K
$1,500
0.61%

Frequently Asked Questions

How fast are home prices rising in The Dalles?
Home values in The Dalles have been appreciating at 2.5% per year. This is near the national average, providing steady equity growth. At this rate, a $390K home would be worth approximately $441K in 5 years.
Is The Dalles a growing city?
The Dalles's population of 50,000 is growing at 1% per year. Moderate growth provides stable demand without overheating.
What is the best investment strategy for The Dalles?
In The Dalles, pure cash flow is tight at 3.04%. Consider appreciation-focused strategies, house hacking, or targeting below-median properties where rent-to-price ratios are stronger.
How does The Dalles compare to other West cities?
Among West markets, The Dalles's 3.04% cap rate exceeds the Oregon average of 2.74%. Prices at $390K are below the state average of $438K. See our comparison tool to evaluate The Dalles against specific markets.
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Explore The Dalles & Related Markets

More The Dalles Guides

Rental Property Investment GuideRent AnalysisProperty Tax GuideCost of Living & AffordabilityNeighborhood Investment Guide

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