Jacksonville, IL Cap Rate 5.18%
Jacksonville is one of the most affordable markets in the country in the Midwest with a small but investable metro of 50,000. At a 5.18% estimated cap rate, this is a moderate market where rents of $890/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $125,000 and population is roughly stable, Jacksonville offers opportunities for investors who source deals carefully.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
Market Data
2026 Market Update: Jacksonville
Jacksonville's 0.7% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $125,000, the $890/mo rent produces only $540/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($25K at 7%) would result in approximately $-125/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
Property taxes consume 24% of gross rent here — one of the highest ratios in our dataset. This significantly compresses margins and makes Jacksonville a market where tax-conscious underwriting is essential. Every deal should be stress-tested with potential assessment increases.
Deal Modeling & Scenarios for Jacksonville
All figures below are computed from Jacksonville's real market medians. Use them as a baseline; override with property-specific numbers in the calculators.
Property Tax Bill in Real Dollars
At 2.06% effective rate on the $125,000 median price, the annual tax bill is $2,575 — that's very high (top 15% of US markets) (+94% vs the national average of ~1.06%). Verify the actual assessed value before purchase; sale-triggered reassessments can push the bill higher than the seller's current statement.
5-Year Cap Rate Trajectory
If Jacksonville continues appreciating at 2.1%/yr while rents grow at a conservative 3%/yr, cap rate holds roughly steady as price growth outpaces rent. Year-by-year projection at the median:
| Year | Est. Price | Est. Rent/Mo | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $125K | $890 | 5.2% |
| Year 1 | $128K | $917 | 5.2% |
| Year 2 | $130K | $944 | 5.3% |
| Year 3 | $133K | $973 | 5.3% |
| Year 4 | $136K | $1,002 | 5.4% |
| Year 5 | $139K | $1,032 | 5.4% |
Three Financing Scenarios
Same median-priced Jacksonville property — different capital structures. All-cash maximizes cap rate. Leverage trades cash flow for higher cash-on-cash return when the spread between cap rate and borrowing cost is positive.
| Scenario | Cash Invested | Monthly Cash Flow | Annual CF | Cash-on-Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cash | $125K | $540 | $6,475 | 5.2% |
| 20% down conventional @ 7% | $29K | $-125 | $-1,505 | -5.2% |
| 25% down DSCR @ 8.5% | $36K | $-181 | $-2,176 | -6.0% |
Three Price Tiers: Below, At, and Above the Median
Properties don't always trade at the median. Lower-priced units typically offer higher cap rates but harder operations; higher-priced properties tend to compress cap rates while attracting better tenants. All-cash assumptions below:
| Tier | Price | Rent/Mo | NOI/Yr | Cap Rate | Monthly CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median (~75% price) | $94K | $757 | $4,788 | 5.1% | $399 |
| At median | $125K | $890 | $5,266 | 4.2% | $439 |
| Above median (~125% price) | $156K | $1,023 | $5,744 | 3.7% | $479 |
Total Return Over a 5-Year Hold
Cap rate is just one piece. Real estate returns come from four sources: cash flow, appreciation, principal paydown, and tax benefits. Assuming 20% down conventional financing at 7% and a 5-year hold at Jacksonville's historical appreciation rate of 2.1%:
On a $25K down payment, that's a 54.6% total ROI over 5 years (not annualized). Tax benefits from depreciation are additional and depend on your personal tax bracket.
Risk Flags Specific to Jacksonville
Automated checks against the underlying data — surface only the risks that actually apply to Jacksonville, not generic boilerplate:
Cap Rate Calculator — Jacksonville
Pre-filled with Jacksonville medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Cash-on-Cash Return — Jacksonville
Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Jacksonville.
Is Jacksonville a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Jacksonville, IL has a population of 50,000 and has been growing at 0.2% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $125,000 paired with median rents of $890/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 5.18%.
Property taxes at 2.06% are notably high and represent a significant drag on cash flow — model this expense carefully, as it can make or break a deal. The vacancy rate of 5.9% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 2.0x, homes cost about 2.0 times the local median income of $62,333. This relatively affordable ratio suggests a deep pool of renters who find buying out of reach, supporting rental demand. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.1% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Jacksonville presents moderate opportunities. Cap rates near 5.18% mean deals need careful sourcing — look for value-add rehabs or emerging neighborhoods where rents are climbing.