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Appreciation & Growth Forecast: Kahului, HI

Updated 2026 · Based on median market data for Kahului, HI

Cap Rate
3.00%
Median Price
$990K
Rent/Mo
$3,510
1% Rule
0.35%
Fails

Historical Appreciation

Home values in Kahului, HI have appreciated at 2% per year. Appreciation is modest, meaning total returns will be driven primarily by cash flow rather than equity gains. This is actually preferred by many investors who want predictable, income-based returns.

5-Year Price Projection

If Kahului continues appreciating at 2% annually, the current median of $990,000 would reach approximately $1,093,040 in 5 years — an equity gain of $103,040 on a property purchased at the median. With a 20% down payment of $198,000, that represents a 52% return on invested equity from appreciation alone. Combined with 5 years of NOI totaling approximately $148,295, the projected total return is $251,335 — a 127% cumulative return on the initial investment.

Growth Drivers

Population growth in Kahului is minimal at 0.2%. Appreciation here is more likely driven by regional economic factors, inflation, and housing stock constraints rather than population-driven demand. Higher-than-average local incomes ($84,200) support continued price growth as more residents can afford to bid up properties.

Total Return Analysis

Smart investors evaluate both cash flow AND appreciation. In Kahului, the 3.00% cap rate provides modest ongoing cash flow, while 2% annual appreciation adds an equity component. Conservative underwriting is essential. Focus on deals where the cash flow stands on its own, and treat any appreciation as a bonus.

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How Kahului Compares

Kahului vs Hawaii state average and national average across key investment metrics. Kahului's cap rate is below both benchmarks — deal sourcing is critical here.

Metric
Kahului
Hawaii Avg
National Avg
Cap Rate
3.00%
3.10%
3.81%
Median Price
$990K
$849K
$333K
Median Rent
$3,510
$3,038
$1,524
Property Tax
0.28%
0.28%
1.08%
Vacancy
4.2%
4.2%
5.6%
Pop. Growth
0.2%/yr
0.2%/yr
0.9%/yr

Nearby West Markets

City
Cap Rate
Price
Rent
Tax
Kahului, HI
3.0%
$990K
$3,510
0.28%
Breckenridge, CO
2.7%
$975K
$3,440
0.51%
Kapaa, HI
3.0%
$1.0M
$3,590
0.28%
Santa Maria, CA
2.3%
$975K
$3,280
0.75%
Hailey, ID
1.4%
$1.0M
$2,530
0.64%

Frequently Asked Questions

How fast are home prices rising in Kahului?
Home values in Kahului have been appreciating at 2% per year. Appreciation is modest, so total returns will be primarily cash-flow driven. At this rate, a $990K home would be worth approximately $1.1M in 5 years.
Is Kahului a growing city?
Kahului's population of 50,000 is growing at 0.2% per year. Slow growth means demand is stable but not increasing rapidly.
What is the best investment strategy for Kahului?
In Kahului, pure cash flow is tight at 3.00%. Consider appreciation-focused strategies, house hacking, or targeting below-median properties where rent-to-price ratios are stronger.
How does Kahului compare to other West cities?
Among West markets, Kahului's 3.00% cap rate is below the Hawaii average of 3.10%. Prices at $990K are above the state average of $849K. See our comparison tool to evaluate Kahului against specific markets.
Full Kahului Analysis →Cap Rate CalculatorBRRRR Calculator

Explore Kahului & Related Markets

More Kahului Guides

Rental Property Investment GuideRent AnalysisProperty Tax GuideCost of Living & AffordabilityNeighborhood Investment Guide

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