Farmington, NM Cap Rate 4.38%
Farmington is a mid-range market in the West with a small but investable metro of 50,000. At a 4.38% estimated cap rate, this is a moderate market where rents of $1,390/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $265,000 and steady population growth supports long-term rental demand, Farmington offers opportunities for investors who source deals carefully.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
Market Data
2026 Market Update: Farmington
Farmington's 0.5% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $265,000, the $1,390/mo rent produces only $967/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($53K at 7%) would result in approximately $-443/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
The 15.9x gross rent multiplier and 5.5% vacancy rate position Farmington as a balanced market. With annual appreciation at 2.7%, total returns (cash flow + equity growth) run approximately 7.1% before financing leverage.
Deal Modeling & Scenarios for Farmington
All figures below are computed from Farmington's real market medians. Use them as a baseline; override with property-specific numbers in the calculators.
Property Tax Bill in Real Dollars
At 0.77% effective rate on the $265,000 median price, the annual tax bill is $2,041 — that's below national average (-27% vs the national average of ~1.06%). Verify the actual assessed value before purchase; sale-triggered reassessments can push the bill higher than the seller's current statement.
5-Year Cap Rate Trajectory
If Farmington continues appreciating at 2.7%/yr while rents grow at a conservative 3%/yr, cap rate holds roughly steady as price growth outpaces rent. Year-by-year projection at the median:
| Year | Est. Price | Est. Rent/Mo | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $265K | $1,390 | 4.4% |
| Year 1 | $272K | $1,432 | 4.4% |
| Year 2 | $280K | $1,475 | 4.4% |
| Year 3 | $287K | $1,519 | 4.4% |
| Year 4 | $295K | $1,564 | 4.4% |
| Year 5 | $303K | $1,611 | 4.4% |
Three Financing Scenarios
Same median-priced Farmington property — different capital structures. All-cash maximizes cap rate. Leverage trades cash flow for higher cash-on-cash return when the spread between cap rate and borrowing cost is positive.
| Scenario | Cash Invested | Monthly Cash Flow | Annual CF | Cash-on-Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cash | $265K | $967 | $11,602 | 4.4% |
| 20% down conventional @ 7% | $61K | $-443 | $-5,315 | -8.7% |
| 25% down DSCR @ 8.5% | $77K | $-562 | $-6,739 | -8.8% |
Three Price Tiers: Below, At, and Above the Median
Properties don't always trade at the median. Lower-priced units typically offer higher cap rates but harder operations; higher-priced properties tend to compress cap rates while attracting better tenants. All-cash assumptions below:
| Tier | Price | Rent/Mo | NOI/Yr | Cap Rate | Monthly CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median (~75% price) | $199K | $1,182 | $8,809 | 4.4% | $734 |
| At median | $265K | $1,390 | $9,993 | 3.8% | $833 |
| Above median (~125% price) | $331K | $1,598 | $11,178 | 3.4% | $931 |
Total Return Over a 5-Year Hold
Cap rate is just one piece. Real estate returns come from four sources: cash flow, appreciation, principal paydown, and tax benefits. Assuming 20% down conventional financing at 7% and a 5-year hold at Farmington's historical appreciation rate of 2.7%:
On a $53K down payment, that's a 51.1% total ROI over 5 years (not annualized). Tax benefits from depreciation are additional and depend on your personal tax bracket.
Risk Flags Specific to Farmington
Automated checks against the underlying data — surface only the risks that actually apply to Farmington, not generic boilerplate:
Cap Rate Calculator — Farmington
Pre-filled with Farmington medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Cash-on-Cash Return — Farmington
Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Farmington.
Is Farmington a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Farmington, NM has a population of 50,000 and has been growing at 0.8% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $265,000 paired with median rents of $1,390/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 4.38%.
Property taxes at 0.77% are well below the national average of ~1.1%, providing a meaningful cash flow advantage many investors overlook. The vacancy rate of 5.5% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 5.1x, homes cost about 5.1 times the local median income of $51,750. This moderate ratio indicates a balanced rent-vs-buy market. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.7% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Farmington presents moderate opportunities. Cap rates near 4.38% mean deals need careful sourcing — look for value-add rehabs or emerging neighborhoods where rents are climbing.