Payson, AZ Cap Rate: 4.48% — Rental Property Analysis
Payson is a higher-priced market in the West with a small but investable metro of 50,000. At a 4.48% estimated cap rate, this is a moderate market where rents of $1,970/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $380,000 and steady population growth supports long-term rental demand, Payson offers opportunities for investors who source deals carefully.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
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Moderate — source deals carefully
Based on $380,000 median price and $1,970/mo median rent
Est. Cap Rate
4.48%
1% Rule
0.52%
Fails
GRM
16.1x
Price / Income
5.7x
Market Data
Median Home Price$380,000
Median Monthly Rent$1,970
Property Tax Rate0.63%
Population50,000
Population Growth1.6% / yr
Median Household Income$66,955
Vacancy Rate5%
Annual Appreciation3%
2026 Market Update: Payson
Payson's 0.5% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $380,000, the $1,970/mo rent produces only $1,419/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($76K at 7%) would result in approximately $-603/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
With 1.6% annual population growth paired with 3% home appreciation, Payson offers a rare combination of current cash flow and future equity upside. The 16.1x gross rent multiplier suggests the market hasn't fully priced in this growth trajectory.
Cap Rate Calculator — Payson
Pre-filled with Payson medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Property Details
$
$
3–8% typical
%
Monthly Expenses
0.63% rate
$
$
8–10% of rent
$
8–12% of rent
$
Cap Rate
3.76%Low
Net Operating Income ÷ Purchase Price
NOI / Year
$14,274
net operating income
Gross Rent Multiplier
16.1x
High (>15)
1% Rule
0.52%
✗ Fails
Monthly Cash Flow
$1,190
before debt service
Annual Breakdown
Gross Rental Income$23,640
Less Vacancy−$1,182
Effective Income$22,458
Less Operating Expenses−$8,184
Net Operating Income$14,274
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Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Payson.
$
$95,000
%
%
years
$
taxes + ins + maint + mgmt
$
$
Cash-on-Cash Return
-8.06%Weak
Annual Cash Flow ÷ Total Cash Invested
Total Cash Invested
$106,400
$95,000 down + $11,400 closing
Monthly Mortgage
$1,858
on $285K loan
Monthly Cash Flow
$-715
after all expenses
Annual Cash Flow
$-8,580
before taxes
Cash Flow Breakdown
Monthly Rent$1,970
Less Expenses−$827
Less Mortgage−$1,858
Monthly Cash Flow$-715
Is Payson a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Payson, AZ has a population of 50,000 and has been growing at 1.6% annually — above the national average, suggesting steady demand pressure on housing. The median home price of $380,000 paired with median rents of $1,970/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 4.48%.
Property taxes at 0.63% are well below the national average of ~1.1%, providing a meaningful cash flow advantage many investors overlook. The vacancy rate of 5% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 5.7x, homes cost about 5.7 times the local median income of $66,955. This moderate ratio indicates a balanced rent-vs-buy market. Home values have appreciated at roughly 3% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Payson presents moderate opportunities. Cap rates near 4.48% mean deals need careful sourcing — look for value-add rehabs or emerging neighborhoods where rents are climbing.
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