Madera, CA Cap Rate: 4.41% — Rental Property Analysis
Madera is a higher-priced market in the West with a small but investable metro of 50,000. At a 4.41% estimated cap rate, this is a moderate market where rents of $2,200/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $420,000 and steady population growth supports long-term rental demand, Madera offers opportunities for investors who source deals carefully.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
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Moderate — source deals carefully
Based on $420,000 median price and $2,200/mo median rent
Est. Cap Rate
4.41%
1% Rule
0.52%
Fails
GRM
15.9x
Price / Income
7.0x
Market Data
Median Home Price$420,000
Median Monthly Rent$2,200
Property Tax Rate0.75%
Population50,000
Population Growth0.8% / yr
Median Household Income$60,018
Vacancy Rate5.2%
Annual Appreciation2.8%
2026 Market Update: Madera
Madera's 0.5% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $420,000, the $2,200/mo rent produces only $1,543/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($84K at 7%) would result in approximately $-691/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
The 15.9x gross rent multiplier and 5.2% vacancy rate position Madera as a balanced market. With annual appreciation at 2.8%, total returns (cash flow + equity growth) run approximately 7.2% before financing leverage.
Cap Rate Calculator — Madera
Pre-filled with Madera medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Property Details
$
$
3–8% typical
%
Monthly Expenses
0.75% rate
$
$
8–10% of rent
$
8–12% of rent
$
Cap Rate
3.68%Low
Net Operating Income ÷ Purchase Price
NOI / Year
$15,439
net operating income
Gross Rent Multiplier
15.9x
High (>15)
1% Rule
0.52%
✗ Fails
Monthly Cash Flow
$1,287
before debt service
Annual Breakdown
Gross Rental Income$26,400
Less Vacancy−$1,373
Effective Income$25,027
Less Operating Expenses−$9,588
Net Operating Income$15,439
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Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Madera.
$
$105,000
%
%
years
$
taxes + ins + maint + mgmt
$
$
Cash-on-Cash Return
-7.93%Weak
Annual Cash Flow ÷ Total Cash Invested
Total Cash Invested
$117,600
$105,000 down + $12,600 closing
Monthly Mortgage
$2,054
on $315K loan
Monthly Cash Flow
$-778
after all expenses
Annual Cash Flow
$-9,331
before taxes
Cash Flow Breakdown
Monthly Rent$2,200
Less Expenses−$924
Less Mortgage−$2,054
Monthly Cash Flow$-778
Is Madera a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Madera, CA has a population of 50,000 and has been growing at 0.8% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $420,000 paired with median rents of $2,200/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 4.41%.
Property taxes at 0.75% are well below the national average of ~1.1%, providing a meaningful cash flow advantage many investors overlook. The vacancy rate of 5.2% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 7.0x, homes cost about 7.0 times the local median income of $60,018. This elevated ratio means homeownership is stretched, supporting rental demand but limiting buyer pools. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.8% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Madera presents moderate opportunities. Cap rates near 4.41% mean deals need careful sourcing — look for value-add rehabs or emerging neighborhoods where rents are climbing.
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