Ashtabula, OH Cap Rate 4.21%
Ashtabula is one of the most affordable markets in the country in the Midwest with a small but investable metro of 50,000. At a 4.21% estimated cap rate, this is a moderate market where rents of $1,000/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $170,000 and population is roughly stable, Ashtabula offers opportunities for investors who source deals carefully.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
Market Data
2026 Market Update: Ashtabula
Ashtabula's 0.6% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $170,000, the $1,000/mo rent produces only $596/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($34K at 7%) would result in approximately $-308/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
Property taxes consume 22% of gross rent here — one of the highest ratios in our dataset. This significantly compresses margins and makes Ashtabula a market where tax-conscious underwriting is essential. Every deal should be stress-tested with potential assessment increases.
Deal Modeling & Scenarios for Ashtabula
All figures below are computed from Ashtabula's real market medians. Use them as a baseline; override with property-specific numbers in the calculators.
Property Tax Bill in Real Dollars
At 1.58% effective rate on the $170,000 median price, the annual tax bill is $2,686 — that's above national average (+49% vs the national average of ~1.06%). Verify the actual assessed value before purchase; sale-triggered reassessments can push the bill higher than the seller's current statement.
5-Year Cap Rate Trajectory
If Ashtabula continues appreciating at 2.2%/yr while rents grow at a conservative 3%/yr, cap rate holds roughly steady as price growth outpaces rent. Year-by-year projection at the median:
| Year | Est. Price | Est. Rent/Mo | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $170K | $1,000 | 4.2% |
| Year 1 | $174K | $1,030 | 4.2% |
| Year 2 | $178K | $1,061 | 4.3% |
| Year 3 | $181K | $1,093 | 4.3% |
| Year 4 | $185K | $1,126 | 4.3% |
| Year 5 | $190K | $1,159 | 4.4% |
Three Financing Scenarios
Same median-priced Ashtabula property — different capital structures. All-cash maximizes cap rate. Leverage trades cash flow for higher cash-on-cash return when the spread between cap rate and borrowing cost is positive.
| Scenario | Cash Invested | Monthly Cash Flow | Annual CF | Cash-on-Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cash | $170K | $596 | $7,150 | 4.2% |
| 20% down conventional @ 7% | $39K | $-309 | $-3,703 | -9.5% |
| 25% down DSCR @ 8.5% | $49K | $-385 | $-4,616 | -9.4% |
Three Price Tiers: Below, At, and Above the Median
Properties don't always trade at the median. Lower-priced units typically offer higher cap rates but harder operations; higher-priced properties tend to compress cap rates while attracting better tenants. All-cash assumptions below:
| Tier | Price | Rent/Mo | NOI/Yr | Cap Rate | Monthly CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median (~75% price) | $128K | $850 | $5,360 | 4.2% | $447 |
| At median | $170K | $1,000 | $5,910 | 3.5% | $493 |
| Above median (~125% price) | $213K | $1,150 | $6,460 | 3.0% | $538 |
Total Return Over a 5-Year Hold
Cap rate is just one piece. Real estate returns come from four sources: cash flow, appreciation, principal paydown, and tax benefits. Assuming 20% down conventional financing at 7% and a 5-year hold at Ashtabula's historical appreciation rate of 2.2%:
On a $34K down payment, that's a 33.0% total ROI over 5 years (not annualized). Tax benefits from depreciation are additional and depend on your personal tax bracket.
Risk Flags Specific to Ashtabula
Automated checks against the underlying data — surface only the risks that actually apply to Ashtabula, not generic boilerplate:
Cap Rate Calculator — Ashtabula
Pre-filled with Ashtabula medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Cash-on-Cash Return — Ashtabula
Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Ashtabula.
Is Ashtabula a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Ashtabula, OH has a population of 50,000 and has been growing at 0.2% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $170,000 paired with median rents of $1,000/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 4.21%.
Property taxes at 1.58% are notably high and represent a significant drag on cash flow — model this expense carefully, as it can make or break a deal. The vacancy rate of 6.7% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 3.6x, homes cost about 3.6 times the local median income of $47,711. This relatively affordable ratio suggests a deep pool of renters who find buying out of reach, supporting rental demand. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.2% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Ashtabula presents moderate opportunities. Cap rates near 4.21% mean deals need careful sourcing — look for value-add rehabs or emerging neighborhoods where rents are climbing.