Greeley, CO Cap Rate 2.62%
Greeley is the regional anchor of Weld County in northern Colorado — uniquely combining the University of Northern Colorado, JBS USA's North American headquarters (the major US beef-processing operations), and the broader Niobrara/DJ Basin oil-and-gas economy. The 2.62% cap rate at a $495,000 median price keeps the 0.35% rent-to-price ratio close to functional. Population growth at 1.8%/yr is among the stronger Front Range numbers.
Employment is anchored by JBS USA (the major US beef-processing operations — Greeley has historically been one of the larger US beef-processing employment concentrations, with JBS the dominant operator), the broader DJ Basin / Niobrara oil-and-gas economy (Weld County is one of the larger Colorado oil-producing counties — sustained drilling and services employment), the University of Northern Colorado (UNC — the regional public university with ~12K students plus the broader research and athletic enterprise), Banner North Colorado Medical Center, the broader Weld County government, the broader Aims Community College, the broader Banner Greeley operations, and a meaningful agricultural and supplier base (the broader northern Colorado / Wyoming agricultural economy). The broader Greeley-Fort Collins corridor is part of the broader Front Range growth story. Submarkets stratify cleanly: the historic downtown / UNC-adjacent zones are walkable urban-historic with strong appreciation; the broader West Greeley draws professional family rentals; the broader Weld County extends with newer construction; central and parts of east Greeley offer deeper-value workforce inventory.
Colorado property tax at 0.52% is moderate. Colorado state income tax is a flat ~4.4%. Insurance is reasonable but verify hail deductible structure (the Front Range has meaningful hail exposure). Colorado has shifted toward tenant-protective regulations — operating in CO requires comfort with the regulatory framework. The structural advantages: JBS + UNC + Banner Health + oil-and-gas services provides a genuinely diversified employer mix; sustained Front Range in-migration; cost basis is materially below Fort Collins or Denver. The structural risks: meat-processing employment has been an ongoing political topic (worker-safety, immigrant-labor practices); oil-and-gas cycles affect Weld County activity; CO regulatory environment requires operator comfort. For investors who want northern Colorado exposure outside Fort Collins/Denver premium pricing, Greeley is the most defensible Weld County option.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
Market Data
2026 Market Update: Greeley
Greeley's 0.3% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $495,000, the $1,710/mo rent produces only $1,080/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($99K at 7%) would result in approximately $-1,553/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
The 24.1x gross rent multiplier and 5% vacancy rate position Greeley as a growth-dependent market. With annual appreciation at 2.6%, total returns (cash flow + equity growth) run approximately 5.2% before financing leverage.
Deal Modeling & Scenarios for Greeley
All figures below are computed from Greeley's real market medians. Use them as a baseline; override with property-specific numbers in the calculators.
Property Tax Bill in Real Dollars
At 0.52% effective rate on the $495,000 median price, the annual tax bill is $2,574 — that's very low (bottom 15% of US markets) (-51% vs the national average of ~1.06%). Verify the actual assessed value before purchase; sale-triggered reassessments can push the bill higher than the seller's current statement.
5-Year Cap Rate Trajectory
If Greeley continues appreciating at 2.6%/yr while rents grow at a conservative 3%/yr, cap rate holds roughly steady as price growth outpaces rent. Year-by-year projection at the median:
| Year | Est. Price | Est. Rent/Mo | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $495K | $1,710 | 2.6% |
| Year 1 | $508K | $1,761 | 2.6% |
| Year 2 | $521K | $1,814 | 2.6% |
| Year 3 | $535K | $1,869 | 2.6% |
| Year 4 | $549K | $1,925 | 2.7% |
| Year 5 | $563K | $1,982 | 2.7% |
Three Financing Scenarios
Same median-priced Greeley property — different capital structures. All-cash maximizes cap rate. Leverage trades cash flow for higher cash-on-cash return when the spread between cap rate and borrowing cost is positive.
| Scenario | Cash Invested | Monthly Cash Flow | Annual CF | Cash-on-Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cash | $495K | $1,080 | $12,960 | 2.6% |
| 20% down conventional @ 7% | $114K | $-1,553 | $-18,641 | -16.4% |
| 25% down DSCR @ 8.5% | $144K | $-1,775 | $-21,299 | -14.8% |
Three Price Tiers: Below, At, and Above the Median
Properties don't always trade at the median. Lower-priced units typically offer higher cap rates but harder operations; higher-priced properties tend to compress cap rates while attracting better tenants. All-cash assumptions below:
| Tier | Price | Rent/Mo | NOI/Yr | Cap Rate | Monthly CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median (~75% price) | $371K | $1,454 | $10,368 | 2.8% | $864 |
| At median | $495K | $1,710 | $11,657 | 2.4% | $971 |
| Above median (~125% price) | $619K | $1,966 | $12,945 | 2.1% | $1,079 |
Total Return Over a 5-Year Hold
Cap rate is just one piece. Real estate returns come from four sources: cash flow, appreciation, principal paydown, and tax benefits. Assuming 20% down conventional financing at 7% and a 5-year hold at Greeley's historical appreciation rate of 2.6%:
On a $99K down payment, that's a 4.3% total ROI over 5 years (not annualized). Tax benefits from depreciation are additional and depend on your personal tax bracket.
Risk Flags Specific to Greeley
Automated checks against the underlying data — surface only the risks that actually apply to Greeley, not generic boilerplate:
Cap Rate Calculator — Greeley
Pre-filled with Greeley medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Cash-on-Cash Return — Greeley
Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Greeley.
Is Greeley a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Greeley, CO has a population of 115,000 and has been growing at 1.8% annually — above the national average, suggesting steady demand pressure on housing. The median home price of $495,000 paired with median rents of $1,710/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 2.62%.
Property taxes at 0.52% are well below the national average of ~1.1%, providing a meaningful cash flow advantage many investors overlook. The vacancy rate of 5% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 8.5x, homes cost about 8.5 times the local median income of $58,200. This elevated ratio means homeownership is stretched, supporting rental demand but limiting buyer pools. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.6% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: At current median prices, Greeley is challenging for pure cash flow investing. Consider BRRRR strategies with below-market purchases, or look at neighboring metros with stronger price-to-rent ratios.