Kingsville, TX Cap Rate 8.18%
Kingsville is one of the most affordable markets in the country in the South with a small but investable metro of 50,000. At a 8.18% estimated cap rate, this is a high-yield market where rents at $1,420/mo track reasonably with home values. With a median home price of $150,000 and steady population growth supports long-term rental demand, Kingsville stands out as a market worth serious analysis for rental investors.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
Market Data
2026 Market Update: Kingsville
At a 0.9% rent-to-price ratio, Kingsville falls just below the 1% rule threshold. A median-priced property at $150,000 with $1,420/mo rent yields approximately $1,023/mo in NOI — workable with favorable financing but not a slam-dunk cash flow market.
With 20% down ($30K) on a 7% conventional loan, estimated monthly cash flow is $225 — a 9.0% cash-on-cash return. That's strong enough to weather vacancies and unexpected repairs without dipping into reserves.
With 1.8% annual population growth paired with 2.7% home appreciation, Kingsville offers a rare combination of current cash flow and future equity upside. The 8.8x gross rent multiplier suggests the market hasn't fully priced in this growth trajectory.
Deal Modeling & Scenarios for Kingsville
All figures below are computed from Kingsville's real market medians. Use them as a baseline; override with property-specific numbers in the calculators.
Property Tax Bill in Real Dollars
At 1.72% effective rate on the $150,000 median price, the annual tax bill is $2,580 — that's very high (top 15% of US markets) (+62% vs the national average of ~1.06%). Verify the actual assessed value before purchase; sale-triggered reassessments can push the bill higher than the seller's current statement.
5-Year Cap Rate Trajectory
If Kingsville continues appreciating at 2.7%/yr while rents grow at a conservative 3%/yr, cap rate holds roughly steady as price growth outpaces rent. Year-by-year projection at the median:
| Year | Est. Price | Est. Rent/Mo | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $150K | $1,420 | 8.2% |
| Year 1 | $154K | $1,463 | 8.2% |
| Year 2 | $158K | $1,506 | 8.2% |
| Year 3 | $162K | $1,552 | 8.3% |
| Year 4 | $167K | $1,598 | 8.3% |
| Year 5 | $171K | $1,646 | 8.3% |
Three Financing Scenarios
Same median-priced Kingsville property — different capital structures. All-cash maximizes cap rate. Leverage trades cash flow for higher cash-on-cash return when the spread between cap rate and borrowing cost is positive.
| Scenario | Cash Invested | Monthly Cash Flow | Annual CF | Cash-on-Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cash | $150K | $1,023 | $12,272 | 8.2% |
| 20% down conventional @ 7% | $35K | $225 | $2,696 | 7.8% |
| 25% down DSCR @ 8.5% | $44K | $158 | $1,890 | 4.3% |
Three Price Tiers: Below, At, and Above the Median
Properties don't always trade at the median. Lower-priced units typically offer higher cap rates but harder operations; higher-priced properties tend to compress cap rates while attracting better tenants. All-cash assumptions below:
| Tier | Price | Rent/Mo | NOI/Yr | Cap Rate | Monthly CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median (~75% price) | $113K | $1,207 | $8,941 | 7.9% | $745 |
| At median | $150K | $1,420 | $10,145 | 6.8% | $845 |
| Above median (~125% price) | $188K | $1,633 | $11,349 | 6.1% | $946 |
Total Return Over a 5-Year Hold
Cap rate is just one piece. Real estate returns come from four sources: cash flow, appreciation, principal paydown, and tax benefits. Assuming 20% down conventional financing at 7% and a 5-year hold at Kingsville's historical appreciation rate of 2.7%:
On a $30K down payment, that's a 146.2% total ROI over 5 years (not annualized). Tax benefits from depreciation are additional and depend on your personal tax bracket.
Risk Flags Specific to Kingsville
Automated checks against the underlying data — surface only the risks that actually apply to Kingsville, not generic boilerplate:
Cap Rate Calculator — Kingsville
Pre-filled with Kingsville medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Cash-on-Cash Return — Kingsville
Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Kingsville.
Is Kingsville a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Kingsville, TX has a population of 50,000 and has been growing at 1.8% annually — above the national average, suggesting steady demand pressure on housing. The median home price of $150,000 paired with median rents of $1,420/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 8.18%.
Property taxes at 1.72% are notably high and represent a significant drag on cash flow — model this expense carefully, as it can make or break a deal. The vacancy rate of 5.8% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 2.4x, homes cost about 2.4 times the local median income of $63,735. This relatively affordable ratio suggests a deep pool of renters who find buying out of reach, supporting rental demand. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.7% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Kingsville offers attractive fundamentals for rental investors. Strong population growth, and cap rates above 6% put it in the upper tier of investable markets.