Johnstown, PA Cap Rate 5.77%
Johnstown is one of the most affordable markets in the country in the Northeast with a small but investable metro of 50,000. At a 5.77% estimated cap rate, this is a solid market where rents of $810/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $115,000 and population is roughly stable, Johnstown stands out as a market worth serious analysis for rental investors.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
Market Data
2026 Market Update: Johnstown
Johnstown's 0.7% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $115,000, the $810/mo rent produces only $552/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($23K at 7%) would result in approximately $-60/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
The 11.8x gross rent multiplier and 6% vacancy rate position Johnstown as a value-oriented market. With annual appreciation at 2.3%, total returns (cash flow + equity growth) run approximately 8.1% before financing leverage.
Deal Modeling & Scenarios for Johnstown
All figures below are computed from Johnstown's real market medians. Use them as a baseline; override with property-specific numbers in the calculators.
Property Tax Bill in Real Dollars
At 1.38% effective rate on the $115,000 median price, the annual tax bill is $1,587 — that's above national average (+30% vs the national average of ~1.06%). Verify the actual assessed value before purchase; sale-triggered reassessments can push the bill higher than the seller's current statement.
5-Year Cap Rate Trajectory
If Johnstown continues appreciating at 2.3%/yr while rents grow at a conservative 3%/yr, cap rate holds roughly steady as price growth outpaces rent. Year-by-year projection at the median:
| Year | Est. Price | Est. Rent/Mo | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $115K | $810 | 5.8% |
| Year 1 | $118K | $834 | 5.8% |
| Year 2 | $120K | $859 | 5.8% |
| Year 3 | $123K | $885 | 5.9% |
| Year 4 | $126K | $912 | 5.9% |
| Year 5 | $129K | $939 | 6.0% |
Three Financing Scenarios
Same median-priced Johnstown property — different capital structures. All-cash maximizes cap rate. Leverage trades cash flow for higher cash-on-cash return when the spread between cap rate and borrowing cost is positive.
| Scenario | Cash Invested | Monthly Cash Flow | Annual CF | Cash-on-Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cash | $115K | $552 | $6,630 | 5.8% |
| 20% down conventional @ 7% | $26K | $-59 | $-712 | -2.7% |
| 25% down DSCR @ 8.5% | $33K | $-111 | $-1,329 | -4.0% |
Three Price Tiers: Below, At, and Above the Median
Properties don't always trade at the median. Lower-priced units typically offer higher cap rates but harder operations; higher-priced properties tend to compress cap rates while attracting better tenants. All-cash assumptions below:
| Tier | Price | Rent/Mo | NOI/Yr | Cap Rate | Monthly CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median (~75% price) | $86K | $689 | $4,914 | 5.7% | $409 |
| At median | $115K | $810 | $5,535 | 4.8% | $461 |
| Above median (~125% price) | $144K | $931 | $6,155 | 4.3% | $513 |
Total Return Over a 5-Year Hold
Cap rate is just one piece. Real estate returns come from four sources: cash flow, appreciation, principal paydown, and tax benefits. Assuming 20% down conventional financing at 7% and a 5-year hold at Johnstown's historical appreciation rate of 2.3%:
On a $23K down payment, that's a 74.7% total ROI over 5 years (not annualized). Tax benefits from depreciation are additional and depend on your personal tax bracket.
Risk Flags Specific to Johnstown
Automated checks against the underlying data — surface only the risks that actually apply to Johnstown, not generic boilerplate:
Cap Rate Calculator — Johnstown
Pre-filled with Johnstown medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Cash-on-Cash Return — Johnstown
Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Johnstown.
Is Johnstown a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Johnstown, PA has a population of 50,000 and has been growing at 0.2% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $115,000 paired with median rents of $810/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 5.77%.
Property taxes at 1.38% fall within the national average range and shouldn't present unusual challenges. The vacancy rate of 6% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 2.4x, homes cost about 2.4 times the local median income of $47,800. This relatively affordable ratio suggests a deep pool of renters who find buying out of reach, supporting rental demand. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.3% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Johnstown presents moderate opportunities. Cap rates near 5.77% mean deals need careful sourcing — look for value-add rehabs or emerging neighborhoods where rents are climbing.