Modesto, CA Cap Rate: 3.53% — Rental Property Analysis
Modesto is a higher-priced market in the West with a mid-sized city of 218,000. At a 3.53% estimated cap rate, this is a appreciation-focused market where rents of $2,060/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $460,000 and population is roughly stable, Modesto is primarily an appreciation play that requires creative strategies to generate positive cash flow.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
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Challenging for pure cash flow
Based on $460,000 median price and $2,060/mo median rent
Est. Cap Rate
3.53%
1% Rule
0.45%
Fails
GRM
18.6x
Price / Income
8.2x
Market Data
Median Home Price$460,000
Median Monthly Rent$2,060
Property Tax Rate0.75%
Population218,000
Population Growth0.5% / yr
Median Household Income$56,200
Vacancy Rate5.5%
Annual Appreciation2.6%
2026 Market Update: Modesto
Modesto's 0.4% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $460,000, the $2,060/mo rent produces only $1,353/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($92K at 7%) would result in approximately $-1,094/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
The 18.6x gross rent multiplier and 5.5% vacancy rate position Modesto as a growth-dependent market. With annual appreciation at 2.6%, total returns (cash flow + equity growth) run approximately 6.1% before financing leverage.
Cap Rate Calculator — Modesto
Pre-filled with Modesto medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Property Details
$
$
3–8% typical
%
Monthly Expenses
0.75% rate
$
$
8–10% of rent
$
8–12% of rent
$
Cap Rate
2.96%Low
Net Operating Income ÷ Purchase Price
NOI / Year
$13,616
net operating income
Gross Rent Multiplier
18.6x
High (>15)
1% Rule
0.45%
✗ Fails
Monthly Cash Flow
$1,135
before debt service
Annual Breakdown
Gross Rental Income$24,720
Less Vacancy−$1,360
Effective Income$23,360
Less Operating Expenses−$9,744
Net Operating Income$13,616
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Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Modesto.
$
$115,000
%
%
years
$
taxes + ins + maint + mgmt
$
$
Cash-on-Cash Return
-9.82%Weak
Annual Cash Flow ÷ Total Cash Invested
Total Cash Invested
$128,800
$115,000 down + $13,800 closing
Monthly Mortgage
$2,249
on $345K loan
Monthly Cash Flow
$-1,054
after all expenses
Annual Cash Flow
$-12,650
before taxes
Cash Flow Breakdown
Monthly Rent$2,060
Less Expenses−$865
Less Mortgage−$2,249
Monthly Cash Flow$-1,054
Is Modesto a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Modesto, CA has a population of 218,000 and has been growing at 0.5% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $460,000 paired with median rents of $2,060/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 3.53%.
Property taxes at 0.75% are well below the national average of ~1.1%, providing a meaningful cash flow advantage many investors overlook. The vacancy rate of 5.5% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 8.2x, homes cost about 8.2 times the local median income of $56,200. This elevated ratio means homeownership is stretched, supporting rental demand but limiting buyer pools. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.6% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: At current median prices, Modesto is challenging for pure cash flow investing. Consider BRRRR strategies with below-market purchases, or look at neighboring metros with stronger price-to-rent ratios.
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