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Cap Rate Analysis: Modesto, CA

Investment metrics, interactive calculators, and data-driven analysis for Modesto rental properties.

Challenging for pure cash flow
Based on $380,000 median price and $1,620/mo median rent
Est. Cap Rate
3.28%
1% Rule
0.43%
Fails
GRM
19.5x
Price / Income
6.8x

Market Data

Median Home Price$380,000
Median Monthly Rent$1,620
Property Tax Rate0.75%
Population218,000
Population Growth0.5% / yr
Median Household Income$56,200
Vacancy Rate5.5%
Annual Appreciation2.6%

Cap Rate Calculator — Modesto

Pre-filled with Modesto medians. Adjust to match a specific property.

Property Details
$
$
3–8% typical
%
Monthly Expenses
0.75% rate
$
$
8–10% of rent
$
8–12% of rent
$
Cap Rate
2.76%Low
Net Operating Income ÷ Purchase Price
NOI / Year
$10,487
net operating income
Gross Rent Multiplier
19.5x
High (>15)
1% Rule
0.43%
✗ Fails
Monthly Cash Flow
$874
before debt service
Annual Breakdown
Gross Rental Income$19,440
Less Vacancy−$1,069
Effective Income$18,371
Less Operating Expenses−$7,884
Net Operating Income$10,487

Cash-on-Cash Return — Modesto

Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Modesto.

$
$95,000
%
%
years
$
taxes + ins + maint + mgmt
$
$
Cash-on-Cash Return
-10.35%Weak
Annual Cash Flow ÷ Total Cash Invested
Total Cash Invested
$106,400
$95,000 down + $11,400 closing
Monthly Mortgage
$1,858
on $285K loan
Monthly Cash Flow
$-918
after all expenses
Annual Cash Flow
$-11,016
before taxes
Cash Flow Breakdown
Monthly Rent$1,620
Less Expenses−$680
Less Mortgage−$1,858
Monthly Cash Flow$-918

Is Modesto a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?

Modesto, CA has a population of 218,000 and has been growing at 0.5% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $380,000 paired with median rents of $1,620/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 3.28%.

Property taxes at 0.75% are well below the national average of ~1.1%, providing a meaningful cash flow advantage many investors overlook. The vacancy rate of 5.5% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.

At a price-to-income ratio of 6.8x, homes cost about 6.8 times the local median income of $56,200. This elevated ratio means homeownership is stretched, supporting rental demand but limiting buyer pools. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.6% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.

Bottom line: At current median prices, Modesto is challenging for pure cash flow investing. Consider BRRRR strategies with below-market purchases, or look at neighboring metros with stronger price-to-rent ratios.

Run a BRRRR analysis for Modesto
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