Utica, NY Cap Rate 4.42%
Utica is the largest metro in New York's Mohawk Valley — historically anchored by GE Aerospace operations and now structurally transforming with Wolfspeed's major silicon carbide semiconductor fab. The 4.42% cap rate at a $215,000 median price keeps the 0.62% rent-to-price ratio at or above the 1% rule in many submarkets — Utica remains a genuine cash-flow market. Population growth at -0.2%/yr is essentially flat — upstate NY demographic trajectory has been weak.
Employment is anchored by Wolfspeed (the silicon carbide semiconductor manufacturer's major fab in Marcy just outside Utica — the largest US silicon carbide manufacturing facility, with continuing expansion; one of the more meaningful structural employment developments in upstate NY in decades), the Mohawk Valley Health System (the dominant regional medical system — the new Wynn Hospital opened 2023 is a major capital investment), the broader Mohawk Valley Community College and SUNY Polytechnic Institute Utica, GE Aerospace legacy operations (significantly downsized from peak), the broader Oneida County government, the Mid-State Correctional Facility and broader NY state correctional employment, Indium Corporation (electronics-materials manufacturer headquartered here), and a meaningful manufacturing and supplier base. Submarkets stratify cleanly: the historic Westmoreland and Cornhill historic areas are walkable urban-historic with strong appreciation; the broader New Hartford and Whitesboro suburbs draw professional family rentals; the broader Oneida County extends with cheaper basis; central Utica offers significantly deeper-value workforce inventory with the operational complexity that comes with older industrial-era housing.
New York property tax in Oneida County is on the higher end nationally — Utica effective rates often exceed 3%. NY state income tax is graduated with a top rate near 10.9%. NY landlord-tenant law is strongly tenant-protective. Insurance is reasonable but verify winter / freeze deductible structure (Utica gets one of the larger snowfall accumulations of any US city). The structural advantages: Wolfspeed's major fab is structurally transformative — the broader CHIPS Act funding is creating sustained semiconductor employment growth; cost basis is among the lowest in NY; genuine cash-flow math at the median. The structural risks: NY regulatory environment is operator-unfriendly; Wolfspeed has had ongoing production-ramp challenges (Wolfspeed's broader financial trajectory has been turbulent); older industrial-era housing requires honest capex assumptions; weather operational complexity. For local operators with NY law comfort and patience for the Wolfspeed thesis to materialize, Utica offers asymmetric upside.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
Market Data
2026 Market Update: Utica
Utica's 0.6% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $215,000, the $1,340/mo rent produces only $791/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($43K at 7%) would result in approximately $-353/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
Property taxes consume 23% of gross rent here — one of the highest ratios in our dataset. This significantly compresses margins and makes Utica a market where tax-conscious underwriting is essential. Every deal should be stress-tested with potential assessment increases.
Deal Modeling & Scenarios for Utica
All figures below are computed from Utica's real market medians. Use them as a baseline; override with property-specific numbers in the calculators.
Property Tax Bill in Real Dollars
At 1.74% effective rate on the $215,000 median price, the annual tax bill is $3,741 — that's very high (top 15% of US markets) (+64% vs the national average of ~1.06%). Verify the actual assessed value before purchase; sale-triggered reassessments can push the bill higher than the seller's current statement.
5-Year Cap Rate Trajectory
If Utica continues appreciating at 1.8%/yr while rents grow at a conservative 3%/yr, cap rate holds roughly steady as price growth outpaces rent. Year-by-year projection at the median:
| Year | Est. Price | Est. Rent/Mo | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $215K | $1,340 | 4.4% |
| Year 1 | $219K | $1,380 | 4.5% |
| Year 2 | $223K | $1,422 | 4.5% |
| Year 3 | $227K | $1,464 | 4.6% |
| Year 4 | $231K | $1,508 | 4.6% |
| Year 5 | $235K | $1,553 | 4.7% |
Three Financing Scenarios
Same median-priced Utica property — different capital structures. All-cash maximizes cap rate. Leverage trades cash flow for higher cash-on-cash return when the spread between cap rate and borrowing cost is positive.
| Scenario | Cash Invested | Monthly Cash Flow | Annual CF | Cash-on-Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All cash | $215K | $791 | $9,493 | 4.4% |
| 20% down conventional @ 7% | $49K | $-353 | $-4,232 | -8.6% |
| 25% down DSCR @ 8.5% | $62K | $-449 | $-5,387 | -8.6% |
Three Price Tiers: Below, At, and Above the Median
Properties don't always trade at the median. Lower-priced units typically offer higher cap rates but harder operations; higher-priced properties tend to compress cap rates while attracting better tenants. All-cash assumptions below:
| Tier | Price | Rent/Mo | NOI/Yr | Cap Rate | Monthly CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median (~75% price) | $161K | $1,139 | $7,074 | 4.4% | $589 |
| At median | $215K | $1,340 | $7,781 | 3.6% | $648 |
| Above median (~125% price) | $269K | $1,541 | $8,488 | 3.2% | $707 |
Total Return Over a 5-Year Hold
Cap rate is just one piece. Real estate returns come from four sources: cash flow, appreciation, principal paydown, and tax benefits. Assuming 20% down conventional financing at 7% and a 5-year hold at Utica's historical appreciation rate of 1.8%:
On a $43K down payment, that's a 27.4% total ROI over 5 years (not annualized). Tax benefits from depreciation are additional and depend on your personal tax bracket.
Risk Flags Specific to Utica
Automated checks against the underlying data — surface only the risks that actually apply to Utica, not generic boilerplate:
Cap Rate Calculator — Utica
Pre-filled with Utica medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Cash-on-Cash Return — Utica
Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in Utica.
Is Utica a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
Utica, NY has a population of 62,000 and has been growing at -0.2% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $215,000 paired with median rents of $1,340/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 4.42%.
Property taxes at 1.74% are notably high and represent a significant drag on cash flow — model this expense carefully, as it can make or break a deal. The vacancy rate of 7% runs above average, which increases cash flow volatility and warrants conservative underwriting.
At a price-to-income ratio of 5.9x, homes cost about 5.9 times the local median income of $36,200. This moderate ratio indicates a balanced rent-vs-buy market. Home values have appreciated at roughly 1.8% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: Utica presents moderate opportunities. Cap rates near 4.42% mean deals need careful sourcing — look for value-add rehabs or emerging neighborhoods where rents are climbing.