St. Paul, MN Cap Rate: 3.03% — Rental Property Analysis
St. Paul is a higher-priced market in the Midwest with a mid-sized city of 311,527. At a 3.03% estimated cap rate, this is a appreciation-focused market where rents of $1,660/mo lag behind home prices. With a median home price of $380,000 and population is roughly stable, St. Paul is primarily an appreciation play that requires creative strategies to generate positive cash flow.
Market data powered by Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) · Updated Feb 2026
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Challenging for pure cash flow
Based on $380,000 median price and $1,660/mo median rent
Est. Cap Rate
3.03%
1% Rule
0.44%
Fails
GRM
19.1x
Price / Income
6.5x
Market Data
Median Home Price$380,000
Median Monthly Rent$1,660
Property Tax Rate1.15%
Population311,527
Population Growth0.4% / yr
Median Household Income$58,200
Vacancy Rate5%
Annual Appreciation2.6%
2026 Market Update: St. Paul
St. Paul's 0.4% rent-to-price ratio is well below the 1% rule. At median prices of $380,000, the $1,660/mo rent produces only $960/mo in NOI. Investors here need to target below-median properties or pursue value-add strategies to make the numbers work.
At current rates, a 20% down conventional loan ($76K at 7%) would result in approximately $-1,062/mo cash flow — negative at median prices. Larger down payments, seller financing, or buying 15–25% below median are strategies to turn the numbers positive.
Property taxes consume 22% of gross rent here — one of the highest ratios in our dataset. This significantly compresses margins and makes St. Paul a market where tax-conscious underwriting is essential. Every deal should be stress-tested with potential assessment increases.
Cap Rate Calculator — St. Paul
Pre-filled with St. Paul medians. Adjust to match a specific property.
Property Details
$
$
3–8% typical
%
Monthly Expenses
1.15% rate
$
$
8–10% of rent
$
8–12% of rent
$
Cap Rate
2.49%Low
Net Operating Income ÷ Purchase Price
NOI / Year
$9,444
net operating income
Gross Rent Multiplier
19.1x
High (>15)
1% Rule
0.44%
✗ Fails
Monthly Cash Flow
$787
before debt service
Annual Breakdown
Gross Rental Income$19,920
Less Vacancy−$996
Effective Income$18,924
Less Operating Expenses−$9,480
Net Operating Income$9,444
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Factor in financing to see your actual return on invested capital in St. Paul.
$
$95,000
%
%
years
$
taxes + ins + maint + mgmt
$
$
Cash-on-Cash Return
-10.09%Weak
Annual Cash Flow ÷ Total Cash Invested
Total Cash Invested
$106,400
$95,000 down + $11,400 closing
Monthly Mortgage
$1,858
on $285K loan
Monthly Cash Flow
$-895
after all expenses
Annual Cash Flow
$-10,740
before taxes
Cash Flow Breakdown
Monthly Rent$1,660
Less Expenses−$697
Less Mortgage−$1,858
Monthly Cash Flow$-895
Is St. Paul a Good Place to Invest in Rental Property?
St. Paul, MN has a population of 311,527 and has been growing at 0.4% annually — roughly in line with national trends, meaning demand is stable but not exceptional. The median home price of $380,000 paired with median rents of $1,660/mo produces an estimated cap rate of 3.03%.
Property taxes at 1.15% fall within the national average range and shouldn't present unusual challenges. The vacancy rate of 5% is moderate and within normal parameters for a healthy rental market.
At a price-to-income ratio of 6.5x, homes cost about 6.5 times the local median income of $58,200. This elevated ratio means homeownership is stretched, supporting rental demand but limiting buyer pools. Home values have appreciated at roughly 2.6% annually. Steady appreciation means total returns will be primarily cash flow-driven — the more sustainable model for long-term wealth building.
Bottom line: At current median prices, St. Paul is challenging for pure cash flow investing. Consider BRRRR strategies with below-market purchases, or look at neighboring metros with stronger price-to-rent ratios.
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